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Sep 7, 2009
gaining some construction from a freeze
The latest being reported in the news about the negotiations, Netanyahu, Obama, et al, are that Netanyahu will announce the construction of a number of homes (reports range anywhere from 500-2500) in the West Bank, and after that there will be a temporary freeze of construction while negotiations get started. At the same time, it is pointed out, Netanyahu has also said that construction in all parts of Jerusalem will never be frozen. Not now, and not later as part of the temporary freeze.
I generally don't like to comment on the medias assumptions and suggestions of what will be announced and what will happen. they are generally wrong, and they change their predictions all the time. For example, see how many times they have announced the deal for Gilad Shalit's freedom being imminent. While we always hope it to be true and that at any point I would love to hear the news announce that Shalit has been released, the announcement that it will happen in a few days is not even worth commenting on. Too much can happen between then and now, and so many times these statements have already not come to fruition. Same thing - the media says what Netanyahu will do. He might, he might not, negotiations between him and the US might change directions, maybe he'll work out something better or agree to worse conditions. So I normally don't like commenting on media statements of what might eventually be.
But this is getting a lot of press and seems to be pretty close to final...
Of course I am not happy with a construction freeze, of any duration.
I don't see this as an issue that is holding up peace, as they already know Israel can and will remove settlements as part of a deal - we did it in Gaza and they have no reason to assume it cannot be done again. So building a few more homes, or extending balconies, is not holding up the peace talks. Also, there has never before been such a freeze, yet the PA was willing to negotiate for the past 15 years... so this new precondition is a farce.
However, in essence, right now construction is frozen anyway while we do nothing and get nothing. We all know how long construction takes. If they approve 500-2500 units to be built, that could take anywhere from 8 months to 2 years (2 years is far more common than 8 months, but they might fast track it). If the freeze is only put in place then, we are changing from the current freeze (which again is for no gain at all), to a freeze in a year or two. By then a lot can happen.
So, if this is our only choice, I can live with it. I understand the reality is that we have to give in a certain amount to the US, and Netanyahu can only withstand a certain amount of pressure. We are frozen anyway, so I see nothing wrong with at least gaining support for some construction before we freeze it, hopefully temporarily. And with the freeze being only 1-2 years away, it might never even happen, or it might be changed (granted, it might be changed for better or worse)...
What do you think?
I generally don't like to comment on the medias assumptions and suggestions of what will be announced and what will happen. they are generally wrong, and they change their predictions all the time. For example, see how many times they have announced the deal for Gilad Shalit's freedom being imminent. While we always hope it to be true and that at any point I would love to hear the news announce that Shalit has been released, the announcement that it will happen in a few days is not even worth commenting on. Too much can happen between then and now, and so many times these statements have already not come to fruition. Same thing - the media says what Netanyahu will do. He might, he might not, negotiations between him and the US might change directions, maybe he'll work out something better or agree to worse conditions. So I normally don't like commenting on media statements of what might eventually be.
But this is getting a lot of press and seems to be pretty close to final...
Of course I am not happy with a construction freeze, of any duration.
I don't see this as an issue that is holding up peace, as they already know Israel can and will remove settlements as part of a deal - we did it in Gaza and they have no reason to assume it cannot be done again. So building a few more homes, or extending balconies, is not holding up the peace talks. Also, there has never before been such a freeze, yet the PA was willing to negotiate for the past 15 years... so this new precondition is a farce.
However, in essence, right now construction is frozen anyway while we do nothing and get nothing. We all know how long construction takes. If they approve 500-2500 units to be built, that could take anywhere from 8 months to 2 years (2 years is far more common than 8 months, but they might fast track it). If the freeze is only put in place then, we are changing from the current freeze (which again is for no gain at all), to a freeze in a year or two. By then a lot can happen.
So, if this is our only choice, I can live with it. I understand the reality is that we have to give in a certain amount to the US, and Netanyahu can only withstand a certain amount of pressure. We are frozen anyway, so I see nothing wrong with at least gaining support for some construction before we freeze it, hopefully temporarily. And with the freeze being only 1-2 years away, it might never even happen, or it might be changed (granted, it might be changed for better or worse)...
What do you think?
Labels:
Netanyahu,
settlements,
USA
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I think we should take the same line that the Arabs have taken towards Obama: give him the finger. The only concession I'd make is that I'd be a lot politer about doing so and couch it in the most diplomatic of terms - but the underlying message to Mr Obama should be clear: no building freeze. Period. Give the Pals some incentive to come to the table fast, before they lose the entire farm.
ReplyDeleteObama has proven himself to be utterly hopeless at diplomacy: to paraphrase Teddy Roosevelt, he speaks loudly and carries a big feather cushion. The rogues' league of Arabs, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela etc. have all smelt him out, and give him the brazen contempt he's fecklessly asked for. So why do we have to be the only freiers in the world to buckle under his non-pressure, especially after he reneged on the Bush administration's understandings?
Obama's a toothless tiger, reeling from his plummeting ratings, desperate to come up with SOME kind of success, somewhere. Why should we rescue him? Let him fall, and not throw ourselves off the cliff to save him.