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Mar 16, 2010

Will Obama cost the Democrats the Jewish vote?

Is Barak Obama destroying the relationship Jews have always had with the Dmeocrat Party? Is his demeaning attitude toward Israel, despite some mistakes Israel might have made, going to harm the party at large rather than just him?

Barak Obama is in big trouble in the US. Many don't like him, and many of thse who supported him have become disenfranchised, realizing that while he sang a nice tune, his charisma and speech-writing abilities are not really enough to be president or to bring peace in the Middle East.

While perhaps the average person in the United States does not really care about the intricacies of the Middle East peace process and of the details of the conflict between Israel and the Arab nations, at least we can talk about the Jews.

While in recent elections we have been seeing a swing of Jewish votes toward the Republican candidates, much of that swing was from the Orthodox community. The lions share of Jewish votes has remained in the Democrat camp. Yet, with the way Barak Obama has mishandled the Middle East issues, and how he has been one-sidedly against Israel all along, perhaps Jews are moving further away from supporting Obama, and perhaps from supporting any future Democrat candidate.

I suspect we are going to see a greater swing of Jewish votes toward the Republican cnadidate in the next election as a result of Obama's policies. The question is really after Obama is gone, will the Jewish vote continue moving towards the Republicans, or will people only punish Obama and not the Democrats?

5 comments:

  1. unfortunately many young liberal, american jews are just as anti-israel as the obamah administration. I don't think he will lose because of this (health reform, however, will kill him).

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  2. The Jewish vote has consistently been 76% - 85% pro-democrat. Further, most "Jewish" strongholds are in very blue state very blue city areas - major democrat strongholds.

    I don't believe the rate would fall below 70% even if the President was shown leading a rally against Jewish education, outlawing circumcision, and for the destruction of Israel and relocation of the Jewish citizens to Alaska.

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  3. listen to what you said - from 76-85, and you dont think it would go less than 70, no matter what he would have done.

    a drop from even 76% to 70% is a major drop.

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  4. Rafi - I think you wanted to say that people are disenchanted with Obama, not disenfranchised.

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  5. Rafi: 76-70% is a major drop if Jews were a significant portion of the population; for instance, Obama's gain from about 88%-11 in 2004 to 96%-3 in 2008 of the black vote led him to victory in the state of North Carolina (where that 16 point net gain among blacks translated to a 3 point gain overall)

    But with Jews, even if something Israel-related drops the Jewish vote to 60-40 Republican [no candidate will support outlawing circ or religious education in the near future, and frankly Alaska would veto because they don't want to share oil rebate money, so leave at 'destruction of Israel'] it would at most be a net loss of like 0.4% (due to the counteraction and vote-picking up from far-leftists and generally domestic-issue right-wing Arabs/Muslims pleased with the 'destruction of Israel' stance), which, since Jewish strongholds are heavily Democratic among non-Jews, would be not so meaningful.

    ReplyDelete

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