Featured Post

Free The Hostages! Bring Them Home!

(this is a featured post and will stay at the top for the foreseeable future.. scroll down for new posts) -------------------------------...

Dec 8, 2008

The Battle Royale

With the Likud primaries about to begin, I would like to say I am optimistic about Moshe Feiglin getting in to the Knesset list, as possibly a couple other people from his list (not the general list of his recommendations - most of those will obviously get in, but I mean his limited list of four he initially recommended).

The media has given this primary the caption of being a fight between Feiglin and Netanyahu, so there is little chance of Feiglin not getting in. If he was so insignificant that he cannot win a realistic spot on the Likud list, there would be no need to declare it a Bibi - Feiglin battle.

What I have no understood is why Netanyahu played it up so much. Yes, he is afraid that with Feiglin on the list, the Kadima marketing people will brand the Likud as a gaggle of right wing extremists. He wants to be pictured as a centrist, so that troubles him.

However one person in the list being an extremist does not define the whole party as such. I do not see why it is such a big deal. At best (or worst, depending on your perspective) he will only be able to influence the party a bit by moving the bar to the right a bit. The bar will also be moved to the left by much more because of Meridor, Hefetz and Dayan. So it is very balanced, and I see no cause for concern even by Feiglin opponents. Anyway, no matter how well Feiglin places, there is no chance Netanyahu would offer him a ministerial job, so his influence will be very limited.

One of the methods used by netanyahu to lower Feiglin's chances was by increasing the amount of selections every voter has in the primary. He upped it from 10 to 15 (really to 12, but toalling 15 including the olim and regional slots).

The theory is that with more selections available, people will be less likely to choose the Feiglin candidate.

Feiglin was also concerned about that, and fought the request. In the end there was a compromise of 12 selections (plus 3) instead of 15 (plus 3).

But I fail to see why that should harm Feiglin. Adderabbe - Personally I think it increases Feiglin's chances. Now I can vote for more people and do not have to worry that I am wasting a vote by choosing some of Feiglin's recommendations. Because I have more selections to vote for.

If I had a bunch of people I wanted to support, I was ina dilemma which ones to vote for. I only had 10 choices. Somebody was going to get cut out of my ballot. Now with 12 selections, I can vote for the guys I want, and the Feiglin guys.

Personally I see the increase in selections to work in Feiglins favor, rather than against him.

Today is going to be an exciting day, as it is the first step in changing the guard.


  1. The higher nuber of selections has nothing to do with making people more or less likely to vote Feiglin.
    It is a statistical issue relating to the relative power of a minority but very homogenious group of voters.

  2. Anon is right.

    If Bibi figures the majority of voters don't want Feglin, but there is a strong minority that do, increasing the permitted number of candidates means that the votes of the majority will carry more weight (as they can decide on more candidates), allowing less room for the choices of the minority.

  3. ok, but then doesn't the weight of the other candidates support go down equally?

  4. No-

    Let's say you have 20 candidates that Bibi likes, and 10 that Feiglin likes.

    If each person can vote for a full 20, then the 20 that Bibi likes all get to the top 20 spots, because the majority is putting them all on their ballot.

    Once the majority can't vote for all 20, their support begins to split between the candidates, while the minority (Feiglin's camp) is voting for all of their people- it becomes much closer.


Related Posts

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...